2. Jing Zhang
Company: Phillip Securities
Winner in: Automobiles & Parts
Country/Region: Hong Kong
What was your single best call during 2012 and why?
Great Wall Motor Co. because the stock price never dropped below my target price during the period.
What was your single worst call during 2012 and why?
Dongfeng Motor Group Co. The company was dealt a big blow by the unexpected territorial spat between China
and Japan in late August, which led to an up to 35% drop in its stock price since May 14 of my recommendation.
Dongfeng Motor, China's second-largest car maker by production, counts Japan's Nissan Motor Co. and Honda
Motor Co. among its foreign partners.
What trends do you foresee in the market this year?
I'm cautiously optimistic about the car market this year. China's new leadership is expected to place a priority on
maintaining stability, which means they will refrain from rolling out aggressive measures, such as limiting car
purchases, to combat air pollution. As such, with solid demand, an annual growth rate of around 10% is likely this
year. With regard to segments, SUVs are expected to maintain strong growth this year, but small and economic
cars will continue to suffer from the toughest competition. In addition, high-end sedan makers will likely offer
bigger discounts than before to attract Chinese consumers; the heavy-duty truck segment is likely to have a
recovery after years of declines but a sharp rise is unlikely as China seems unlikely to start another round of
investment boom as it did in the post-2008 financial crisis.
《華爾街日報》報道，內地「錢荒」的影響，或擴散至汽車業。報道援引研究公司Sanford C. Bernstein數據顯示，中國汽車生產商是銀行承兌匯票的主要用戶，其應收賬款回款期比其他地區的長得多。當中回款期最長的是吉利汽車(00175.HK)，去年底平均回款期為172天；排第二的是長城汽車(02333.HK)，回款期為131天；寶馬集團(BMW)中國的合作夥伴華晨中國(01114.HK)回款期亦達112天，相比起西方國家汽車生產商的回款期僅略多於一個月。