Hong Kong / China Property team:
Cusson Leung (+852 2800 8526) / Amy Luk (+852 2800 8524) / Ryan Li (+852 2800 8529)
· Land price on the slide: Great Eagle stood out as the winner of the Pak Shek Kok site, at a land cost of HK$2.4 bn. It expects to invest a total of HK$7bn on the site. The AV of HK$3,300 psf is 46-55% below the AV of the four harbor-front sites nearby, acquired by the Sino-led consortium in 2007 and 2009. The extremely low land cost can give us an idea, we believe, about the level of bid submitted by Sino Land, the largest land owner in the area. We believe the sharp fall in land cost in the area is warranted, but the extent of the fall was beyond expectations. (Source: HKET)
JPM view: From the latest land transactions, we continue to see divergence in land costs between urban and New Territories areas. The Pak Shek Kok site fetched a record-low land price compared to sites nearby, whereas the Kai Tak site continued to attract strong interest amid limited land supply in urban areas. Also, as land supply increases and land cost slides, we observe more active participation by small and medium-sized property companies, such as Great Eagle, in the land sale market; competition is increasing. That said, given the large supply pipeline coming through, we believe land prices will continue to fall, which should allow developers to secure satisfactory margins. We also believe the current land auction results from Pak Shek Kok will spark questions again on the potential valuation downside risk to Sino’s land bank in the area.