- 管理層benefits from being the market player 的同時亦著眼於成本控制，2個因素令1H2010年毛利率由27.3% 上升到32% yoy, 而operating margin 由11.1%升到13.5% yoy.
- According to a Company Visit Note issued by Yamaichi, the brazilian customer is also the sponsor of Brazil 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olmypic. The order is still under discussion, don't take it for grant.
- 7Mar2011 小弟用email 問左IR 關於訂單情況, 以下是部分reply:
"Our major customers include Disney, Walmart and Ides from Japan. Our major customers are also the major ones in market and we have long history of co-operation with them. We believe this relationship can be maintained in the future as we are the world’s largest manufacturer in plush stuffed toys and we have strong R&D capabilities." 雖然比較含糊, 但sense 到係 positive
- 14Mar2011 In 1H2010 ~36% of Dream International's revenue is generated from Japanese Clients. I personally think that the impact of the earthquake and tsunami to Dream Intl is both Short term and Long term. For short term, though the sales order is pre-determined and not going to be affected in very short term, it should increases the risk of collecting receivables from those Japanese clients who suffer. For long term, Tourism is like to be severely hit in foreseeable future until the infrastructure is remedied and the nuclear leakage problem is eased, so it is quite likely that the Japanese clients will not place as much order as before. All in all, it will affect Dream Intl's revenue expectation. THE FUNDEMENTAL HAS CHANGED! I recommend people to focus on the change in the future rather than too focus in the past. Current price at 1.35-1.4 provides very sufficient opporunities to sell.
- 17Mar2011 Prices dropped to 1.24 (down 11% from originally 1.4 when i first mentioned it), it seems more people recognize the real impact caused to the company by the earthquake+tsunami+nuclear radiation. But the buying power, nonetheless, is not as minimal as i expected, 1 reason i guess there are still some people feel optimistic by the profit alert and want to take a speculative move before the result is actually annouced. This is sensible in a perspective that [1.25 with a profit alert] is indeed a better bargain than [1.4 right before the profit alert], when not considering the japanese impact mentioned above. I expect that the buying power will shrink significantly after the result is annouced on 25Mar11, esp when the management discuss the negative impact from the Japan clients, people will continue to sell. When I feel that all people have sold their shares on hand and the share prices completely (or overly) reflect the Japanese impact, I would consider to buy it again, hopefully at <0.9 (a non-sophisticated valuation excluding the income from Japanese clients).
- Surging cost of raw material and wage 是主要threat, OEM亦前後受敵
- Customers 比較集中
- If the Brazilian customer does not renew the order, 2012 revenue will decline sharply
- 有機會2H09 出現一些未被發現的問題 (FX loss, a significant rise in expense, etc)導致全年收入和預期有大出入, 成個valuation 錯晒
- Korea 局勢近期不穩, 可能會增加politic risk
- 成交比較thin, 會subject to liquidity risk (Updated 09Mar2011: The situation improves after the profit alert)
- Revenue rises 55% to HKD1.5 Billion, the highest year since it went public in 2002, thanks to 1) the increase in order from Japanese clients and 2) the two big orders from a new Brazillian client.
- Gross profit margin increases from 25% in 2009 to 30% in 2010 despite the pressure of high raw material and labour cost. It can be explained by the strategy of moving towards to high-end toys, given that people are more wealthy and are willing to spend more for better quality toys. With the strengthened market leader position, Deam Intl wholly benefits from this opportunities. (As mentioned in previous blog, 30% of its competitors were washed away in the finanical tsunami in 2008-2009)
- EPS up 167% to HKD0.2983 (32% higher than my base-line estimate), Current price $1.36 represents PE 4.6X
- Final DVD is HKD0.04 (2009: HKD0.03), with the 2010 interim DVD of HKD0.02. That means FY DVD is HKD0.06 (my base-line estimate is HKD0.05) = 4.4% dvd yield.
- Wait, there usually comes with bad news when all the good news are reflected. So what are the bad news? Please notice that Dream Intl is getting more relied on Japanese clients. in 2009, Japanese clients contributed 36% of the company's revenue; In 2010 the portion surged to 41%!!! It is absolutely not a problem before the earthquake/ tsunami/ nuclear leakage problem happened in Japan, but it is a serious problem after that. I would consider the problem as both short term and long term. In ST, I doubt about the receivables, yet I do not know how serious each of the Japanese clients is affected. For LT, the demand for toys is likely to decline along with Tourism. For safety reasons less people will consider Japan as a place to travel, the biggest client - Disneyland will have too much stocks accumulated so they will probably decrease the order from Dream Intl. Also, the Japanese people who suffer would spend their money on foods and clothes rather than toys, I hope it sounds sensible.
- So there are good points (for the past) and bad points (for future), the market price will reflect which side people weight more on. And it is like a "music-chair" game, when the music is still playing people can still enjoy the game, but when it stops, there is no more fun but fear. The point is none of us knows when the music will stop, so I would choose not to participate in the game. (Personally I think we should weight more on the future outlook than the past, but the market always do not behave what I think it should behave :P)
- I feel very sad that this company with such good fundementals but it encounters natural hazards. I think that is fate. God bless the good Japanese citizens.
- I did not study the things thoroughly enough and cannot guarantee all the info are error-free. I just aim to share what I know. If I have missed/misunderstood any points, please don't mind to correct me, thanks.
1126.HK up 12% when the market opens and gradually going downward through the day. At last closed at 1.44, rise 5%.
1126.HK had a downward trend through out the day. Opened at $1.43 and gradually dropped and closed $1.35, dropped 6.25%
你send 電郵查詢都肯覆，都算重視小股東，好過3818，send了幾封電郵都不覆。不過我打算send 封thank you letter給他們，多謝他們的傲慢、無禮，以致我之前一直沒有再增持3818。